EliteTech Charts

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I think we are starting to hit the top around this area.  We’ve just been trading sideways with a high of 1113 and retesting the the high a few times.  As the index is moving sideways momentum is weakening.  I’m looking for a lower high and then break down past 1085 area.  I’m either selling my longs here or starting to look for shorts.

$SPX was 1106 yesterday.  I think we are topping from what I see in the price movements of select sectors and stocks.  No confirmation yet, just a feeling.

Dont’ fall for the head and shoulders that everyone in the world sees!  Do you see how perfect it is?  It is for this reason I don’t think it will play out.  The whole world sees this pattern, it occurs right at perfectly round index numbers.  It’s just way too perfect.  Don’t trust it to play out like you think.  I am going against Technical Analysis and say we are going to break the high before moving any lower.

The market has bounced off technical support at 1040 and wants to go higher. It looks like it wants to retest the highs and I believe it may even break the highs. I don’t believe the market is topping here yet.

Looks like a new high next week.  Maybe we will approach 1050

Expecting a top around this area of 1000, if we break yes6terday’s high we can go all the way up to the 1010 area to restest or move higher.  EiEither way use these areas as markers.

If sentiment is not horrible, looks like maybe range bound from 992-1008, the max time for this range would be this week, but I think shorter. If sentiment really bad we might slice through 992 and head toward 970. Some clear longer term, negative TA patterns are starting to show up, which points to retracement to 950 area.and eventually 900. But looking at the blogs, most traders are just scalping the trades, not bullish or bearish, many expecting a 1020 test first.

I got burned pretty bad on the short side and made the mistake of being too stubborn and stuck on one view to really see what was going on.  Currently the $SPX is at the 1010 area.  I feel now may be a small top around this area but I don’t know when the actually top is.  Basically I wouldn’t go long, but I wouldn’t go short until the $SPX breaks 890 and come back up to retest.  I’ll post up some charts later on.  But I learned a valuable lesson, not to get stuck on a certain view, no matter what the facts.  Best to flow with the market to some degree.

UPDATE: 11:00 EST
$SPX is at 1015.  No shorts unless we get confirmation.  No signs of weakening yet, unless you are speculating.  Actual price action does not show anything until we get get some strong selling.

I know we’ve had some pretty hard rallying against our short positions but if you follow strict TA guidelines, the head and shoulders pattern is actually still in play unless we move above 950.  A retrace here to the 910 area on the $SPX is likely but we can rebound from there and head to 980.  What I’ve been really looking at here is the $VIX which seems to be creating a bottom.  If it bottoms here and rallies back to the top of it’d downtrend line it will bring a drift back to 910.  We really need to see what happens there.  No bias either way.  We just have to see what the market does.  The $SPX is a little worse off then the other indexes which slightly more bullish TA signs.  For those of you on the side lines, stay that way.

We’re at 912 max of the downtrend line, I just picked up my last lot of TZA at $22.80.  Fully short now, let’s hope today is a gap and crap like I think.  This is the max to where I think the rally will go.  so any open and rally is unexpected for me, unless it’s a few points.  HOWEVER, lots of small caps are up right now.  So there is still the possibility of a FULL right shoulder back to 920.  In terms of the Russells, I hope IWM doesn’t go to $51.30.  The head is at $53.50 and a downtrend line from there can be drawn to around $51.60 currently.  Right now we are at the tip right shoulder at around $50.30.